Gartner forecasts 30% of AI-driven layoffs will be rehired by 2029, at higher cost
30% of AI-replaced employees Gartner expects rehired by 2029
Gartner predicts that by 2029, 30% of employees laid off because AI replaced their work will need to be rehired, often at a significantly higher cost. The forecast is in Gartner’s September 2026 future-of-work release, and IT Pro covered it on November 2. Gartner analyst Caitlyn McDonough told IT Pro that organizations often decide how many people to let go before they understand what it will take to get work done. IT Pro reports that only 19% of firms say they have practices for aligning talent strategy with how work is changing. Gartner gives no sample or method for the forecast.
They decide how many people to let go before they understand what it will take to get work done.
Alan's takeMost layoffs start with a number: how deep do we need to cut to make the quarter work? Then AI gets named as the reason, because it can theoretically pick up the slack for those who remain. Gartner’s 30% rehire forecast is the result of this approach. It is better to starts with the work, not the headcount. Which tasks can AI perform with low risk to the organization, and which tasks depend on the judgment and institutional knowledge that we can’t easily buy back?